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Pitch Black Prices After Launch Weekend: The Chases Are Falling Right on Schedule
Pitch Black launched Friday and the weekend did exactly what history said it would, the chase cards fell hard from their presale highs. The Mega Darkrai ex Special Illustration Rare slid from around $505 in presale toward a $300 market price, with recent raw sales averaging lower still, while sealed product held above list. Here are the real weekend numbers, why this always happens, and when the actual buy window opens.
What the Chases Sold For This Weekend
The launch-weekend numbers, presale versus now, all raw ungraded copies:
- Mega Darkrai ex SIR #116. Presale market around $505, now a market price around $300, and the spread tells the real story, sellers are still asking $399 and up while recent raw sales have averaged closer to $214. The gap between asking and sold prices has never been wider, which is exactly why sold data is the only number that counts.
- Mega Chandelure ex SIR #115. From around $101 presale to a market price around $66.
- Gwynn SIR #119. From around $70 presale to about $39, with occasional sales still near $100.
- The mid-tier is falling faster. Misty's Vitality dropped more than 60 percent on the week, and the Goldeen Illustration Rare fell nearly as far, the shallow end of the chase list always corrects hardest.
- Japan led the way, Abyss Eye prices fell 15 to 27 percent after its own launch, the leading indicator we cited before release.
Graded copies are a separate market that barely exists yet, the first PSA 10s of the Darkrai SIR will command multiples of raw when they return from grading, listings have reached as high as $2,999 for pristine copies. For the full ranked chase list, our Pitch Black chase cards breakdown is updated with the new numbers.
Why Prices Fall After Launch
No mystery, just supply. Presale prices are set when almost no copies exist, launch weekend floods the market with freshly pulled cards, and every ripper listing their Darkrai undercuts the last listing. The result is the pattern we published before release, launch day is the best time to sell a big pull and the most expensive time to buy one, and the singles you want get cheaper as supply catches up.
That is not hindsight. Our chase-cards piece said it on July 14 and our buying guide said do not pay double list for sealed on July 15. The weekend receipts are in, and the pattern held.
Sealed Is the Exception
While singles fell, sealed product held its premium, Elite Trainer Boxes are trading around $90 to $130 on the secondary market against a list price near $55, because retail restocks have not caught up with demand yet. Sealed premiums stay sticky until shelves refill, and the restock schedules we tracked are the way to beat that premium, not the resale market.
The split is the weekend's real lesson, singles correct fast because supply arrives instantly from pack rips, sealed corrects slowly because supply arrives on freight trucks.
When To Buy: The Honest Windows
- Buying singles? The slide is not finished. The era's pattern says the trough arrives 3 to 6 weeks after launch, once the rip wave peaks and supply is fully absorbed. If you want a specific chase, laddering in over the coming weeks beats trying to call the exact bottom.
- Selling a weekend pull? The best window was launch weekend, but early week two still beats week six on the pattern. Price against recent sold listings, not the $399 asks nobody is paying.
- Buying sealed? Wait for restocks at list, they have followed every sellout of this era within weeks.
- Every decision, sold data only. The ask-versus-sold gap this week is the widest of the cycle, eBay Sold and market prices are the truth, listings are a wish.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much is the Mega Darkrai ex worth now?
As of July 20, the Mega Darkrai ex Special Illustration Rare #116 carries a market price around $300, down from about $505 in presale, with recent raw sales averaging closer to $214 and sellers still asking $399 and up. The gap between asking and sold prices is unusually wide, so check recent sold listings for the exact card before buying or selling. Graded copies are a separate, much higher market that is only starting to form.
Why are Pitch Black prices dropping?
Supply. Presale prices form when almost no copies exist, and launch weekend floods the market with freshly pulled cards, so sellers undercut each other and prices correct. Japan's version of the set fell 15 to 27 percent after its own launch, and the English market is following the same path. This is the normal launch cycle, not a collapse in demand.
When is the best time to buy Pitch Black cards?
The pattern from this era says singles bottom out around 3 to 6 weeks after launch, once the opening wave of packs is absorbed. Buying gradually over the coming weeks beats trying to time the exact low. For sealed product, waiting for retail restocks at list price beats paying the current secondary premium, restocks have followed every sellout of this era within weeks.
Where to Go From Here
The weekend confirmed the whole playbook, sell into the launch heat, buy into the quiet weeks, and never trust an asking price. The chases are real, the set is a hit, and patience is still the cheapest card in the hobby. And if you would rather open than wait, the Polkastarter marketplace has Pitch Black packs live soon, every pack lists its cards, values, and chances before you open, the Pitch Black event is coming this week, and your first Lootbox is free at signup.
News content, every figure is a July 20 snapshot of a fast-moving launch market and will change, and nothing here is investment advice. Polkastarter sells Pitch Black themed packs, and this article discloses that interest.
Sources
Iggy is a Web3 content strategist and writer with over 8 years of experience in the crypto space. She spent 4 years at TokenSuite, a leading Web3 marketing agency, where she produced content across 200+ projects including Biconomy and Natix Network, helping teams communicate complex blockchain concepts clearly and build engaged communities at scale.
Beyond agency work, Iggy has independently run content and marketing campaigns for projects like Oppi Wallet and Ta-da, covering everything from editorial and brand positioning to event coverage and video production. She brings genuine hands-on experience to everything she writes.